arthur hill, cmt

Commodity and historical index data provided by Pinnacle Data Corporation. Nevertheless, a handful are knocking on the new high door with pennant breakouts in the making (ITB). The rally continues to broaden with two more bullish breadth thrusts. Moves above 70 may be considered short-term overbought, but it takes strong upside momentum to get above 70 and this is longer term bullish. As the chart below shows, DBB is the clear leader with a breakout on October 9th and 52-week high this week. Systematic ETF rankings for trend-momentum strategies (Thursdays), Proprietary index and sector breadth models for market timing (Fridays), Backtested strategies for trading ETFs and stocks, Subscribe today and receive two bonuses! -Arthur Hill, CMTChoose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process, © All rights reserved - TrendInvestorPro.comBelgatex Consulting VOF - Grote Markt 1 PB 52 - Mechelen 2800, ETF grouping and ranking with chart analysis (Thursdays), ChartBook with annotated charts for 60 core ETFs (Thursdays), Broad market analysis and market timing models (Fridays), Backtested strategies for trading ETFs and stocks, Weekly video analysis and commentary (Saturdays), Subscribe today and receive two bonus chart lists! First, SPY and QQQ became extremely extended in early September, as measured by. Can it continue? In order to use StockCharts.com successfully, you must enable JavaScript in your browser.Click Here to learn how to enable JavaScript. Striving to further the profession with diverse opportunities in continuing education, advocacy, ethics awareness, and networking. The EW Consumer Discretionary ETF was the only sector that did not record a new high this week. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, Weekend Video – Digesting Gains. Furthermore, the top ten stocks account for 25%, while the top 50 stocks account for 52%. Despite relatively low volume, ETFDB.com rates DBA and DBB A+ for liquidity. *. Want to stay up to date with Arthur's latest market insights? We will consider how long this correction might last, the path it might take and what would suggest that this is more than just a correction. All are in bull mode right now and the broad market environment is bullish. Click here to login. A breakout would signal a continuation of the bigger uptrend. The Agriculture ETF (DBA) has yet to clear its September high, but sports a bullish continuation pattern. The Solar Energy ETF (TAN) is far an away the leader and the only ETF in the core list to hit a new high. About the author: Arthur Hill, CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. featuring dozens of breadth indicators and over 100 customized charts. Mid-caps, small-caps, banks and utilities led the charge. In particular, the EW Finance ETF (RYF) broke above its prior highs this month and is holding above these highs. I am choosing the five biggest sectors because they account for 66% of the EW S&P 500 ETF. Leadership, however, is changing as techs sag a little. There appears to be a shift in market dynamics over the last two weeks. The weight of the evidence is clearly bullish here. Namely, we are seeing continued weakness in Treasury bonds, relative strength in inflation-indexed bonds, weakness in the Dollar and strength in several commodity groups. This means eight of the eleven equal-weight sectors hit new highs this week. There appears to be a shift in market dynamics over the last two weeks. After a 15% advance in SPY and 25% surge in IWM, stocks rested from June 8th to July 9th with consolidations. He is an active member of the CMT Association. After a surge from late June to early September, the ETF consolidated with a trading range the last seven weeks. The S&P 500 SPDR is down around 6% this month and QQQ is down around 8%. Today’s report will rank and group my core, © All rights reserved - TrendInvestorPro.comBelgatex Consulting VOF - Grote Markt 1 PB 52 - Mechelen 2800. Even though RSI is normally thought of as a momentum oscillator, a look inside the formula shows that it can also be used to define the trend and identify early leaders. Some discrepancies are starting to build in the stock market. GLD may be parting ways with TLT and hooking up with SPY again. Commodity and historical index data provided by Pinnacle Data Corporation. For confirmation purposes, I am going to use the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) and six of the eleven equal-weight sector ETFs. It’s all so clear and consistent. The Commodity ETF (DBC) can be broken down into the Agriculture ETF (DBA), the Base Metals ETF (DBB), the Energy ETF (DBE) and the Precious Metals ETF (DBP). Even if some equal-weight ETFs are not suitable for trading, they reflect performance for the “average” stock and provide a better representation for the sector as a whole. Arthur has written a book defining his process, Define the Trend and Trade the Trend. Trading and investing in financial markets involves risk. Investors and traders typically use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to find signals that help identify turning points in security prices. There is also a post on exit strategies that compares three trailing stop indicators. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. © StockCharts.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The IWM:SPY ratio moved above its 40-week SMA for the first time in 2 years, XLI is above the 200-day and KRE rose from the ashes the last four weeks. We are also monitoring the flag/pennant breakouts from early February and a couple of flags that are flying right now. While a non-confirmation from the Consumer Discretionary is a concern, this concern is more than offset by the confirmation in the other five. It saves me tons of time and effort. Small-caps and mid-caps are largely off my radar right now. You keep us on the right side of the trend with the benchmark highs & lows in the indexes & sectors. Chartists can extend this concept of confirmation to the key sectors in the S&P 500 and most key sectors are confirming the recent high. Within the ETF chart book, the setups in SPY and QQQ started from a position of strength, but the market leading gains in IWM and MDY started from a position of weakness (ditto for KRE and KBE). The StochClose strategy offers a systematic approach to trading a defined ETF universe. I have been a loyal follower and admirer of yours for years and I am slowly able to see/read charts more objectively .... and tune out the noise. The breakout is bullish, but the coast is not entirely clear. He takes a quantitative approach to trading using rule-based strategies that are tested in different market environments. He takes a quantitative approach to trading using rule-based strategies that are tested in different market environments. I do not trade off intermarket relationships, but I do trade specific patterns and there are several commodity related ETFs with bullish breakouts working. The index and sector breadth models remain bullish overall, despite a few individual bearish signals. Premium content is geared towards traders and investorslooking for a systematic and objective approach. Small-caps, mid-caps, banks and utilities. The sector breadth model also remains firmly bullish with the newest signals coming. Here’s what to watch going forward. This article will cover the trend reversal exit and three trailing stop alternatives. This is important when making broad market assessments. The work you do to keep us informed of the overall market direction is invaluable. TrendInvestorPro.com. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, Market Timing and Trend-Momentum Strategies, Sample – The State of the Stock Market – Concerns Versus Evidence, Sample ETF Ranking and Grouping – Staples/Utes Leading – Software/Biotech Look Vulnerable. Arthur received a B.S. Narrowing Spreads, Backtesting Breadth, Bank ETFs Surge, Checking Commodity ETFs, Timing Models – Breadth Model/Indicator Review, Testing Model Signals with SPY and QQQ, Bullish Consolidations Form, Banks Perk Up, Yields Spreads Narrow and Fed Balance Sheet hits New High, ETF Trends Patterns & Setups – Surge and Stall for IWM, Bond ETFs Struggle, Banks Show Strength, Activity in the Intermarket Arena: Bonds, Inflation-Indexed Bonds, Commodity ETFs and the Dollar, Exit Strategies – Trend Reversal, Chandelier, Parabolic SAR and ATR Trailing Stop, Weekend Video – Spinning Tops, Wedge Breakouts, ATR Trailing Stops, Bullish Breadth Thrust, New Highs in Cyclical ETFs and Oil Breakout, Timing Models – Small-caps Poised to Outperform, GLD Divorces TLT, Breadth Models Improve, Yield Spreads Continue to Narrow, ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Key ETFs Fail to Confirm New Highs, Trailing Stops with ATR, Banks Still Lagging, Taking Breadth Thrusts to the Sector Level, Weekend Video – Breadth Thrusts Show Broadening Participation, Falling Flag/Wedge Breakouts Extend, Banks and Finance are Still Lagging, Timing Models – Small-caps and Finance Sector Perk Up as Breadth Indicators Show Broadening Participation, ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – A Two Week Shift, Healthcare ETFs Remain Strong, SOXX and Retail Follow Thru, Q&A – Trend-Following notes, Broad Market Trend Filters and getting the Jump with the Short-term Breadth Model, Weekend Video – Monitoring the Breakouts in SPY, QQQ and Tech-related ETFs, Retail and Housing Perk Up, as Bonds Break Down, Timing Models – ROC Shock Lingers, but Short-term Breakouts Hold, ETF Trends, Patterns and Setup – Breakouts from September Corrections, Laggards still Lagging and Bonds Sag, StochClose Strategy (Part 6) – Update, Thoughts on Cherry Picking, Testing with a Moving Average Filter, 2 Equity ETFs Holding Up Well in September, Weekend Video – Falling Wedges Take Shape, Select Tech and Housing Hold Up, Energy and Finance Remain in Doghouse.

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